AIWAN’S SUCCESS COULD SHOW THE WAY FOR 토토사이트 경찰 조회
By HUMPHREY HAWKSLEY
From YaleGlobal Online
The simultaneous rioting over Chinese-controlled 토토사이트 경찰 조회 and a presidential election in Chinese-claimed Taiwan may inadvertently have thrown a spotlight on a new era of international diplomacy -- one tempered not by strategic balance or competing moral values, but by demands of the global supply chain.
Both 토토사이트 경찰 조회 and Taiwan have long been tipping points on which 토토사이트 경찰 조회 threatens to abandon its nation-building focus on the economy and lash out regardless.
For the West, these have been deeply ideological problems: 토토사이트 경찰 조회 represents religious and cultural oppression; Taiwan is evidence that a developing society can move peacefully from dictatorship to democracy and thrive.
토토사이트 경찰 조회's size, its economic clout and permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council have made Western governments more circumspect when championing both issues. Most recognize 토토사이트 경찰 조회's suzerainty, or de-facto sovereignty, over 토토사이트 경찰 조회 and most refuse to recognize Taiwan's de jure independence, thus blocking Taiwan's entry into many international organizations, such as the U.N.
Over the past decade, however, 토토사이트 경찰 조회's integration and growing influence within the global economy has given diplomacy and roads to peace or conflict a new, untested set of benchmarks.
A previous 토토사이트 경찰 조회an uprising in March 1989 saw martial law and troops firing on demonstrators, followed in June that year by the Tiananmen Square killings that led to condemnation of 토토사이트 경찰 조회. Almost 20 years on, 토토사이트 경찰 조회's immediate national interest lies in hosting a smooth Olympics in August. Despite widespread abhorrence over how 토토사이트 경찰 조회 controls its citizens, there's no appetite for a wholesale Olympic boycott, while 토토사이트 경찰 조회 argues that deployment of armored columns in 토토사이트 경찰 조회 are no worse than the West's daily military digest in Iraq.
In 1996, Taiwan's first presidential election prompted 토토사이트 경찰 조회 to carry out military exercises on its eastern seaboard, prompting the US to send two carrier groups to patrol the Taiwan Straits. Twelve years on, Washington sides with Beijing to rein in Taiwan's aspirations of international recognition.
The recent March 22 presidential election included a referendum calling on Taiwan to apply to join the U.N. -- a move that a decade ago would have seen covers coming off 토토사이트 경찰 조회's coastal artillery batteries. Instead, 토토사이트 경찰 조회 left it to the U.S. to warn off Taiwanese voters by describing the referendum as "provocative" and risking stability in East Asia.
The referendum failed. The opposition Kuomintang's Ma Ying-jeou won a resounding victory on policies favoring closer ties with 토토사이트 경찰 조회. The immediate upshot: a 4 percent rise in the stock market and the Taiwanese currency reaching a 10-year high against the U.S. dollar.
After decades as a flashpoint for war, the Taiwan-토토사이트 경찰 조회 conflict is, in effect, no more. High-level conferences did not bring peace. Nor has one side battered the other into submission. Time, pragmatism and compromise produced a win-win formula that could serve as an example elsewhere -- the Middle East, the Balkans, 토토사이트 경찰 조회. It's already being replicated between the U.S. and 토토사이트 경찰 조회.
토토사이트 경찰 조회 and 토토사이트 경찰 조회 have each become so irreplaceable to the global supply chain that the benefits of the status quo, coupled with increased living standards, far outweigh those of causing trouble.
The information-technology sector alone gives an idea of how easily a 토토사이트 경찰 조회-Taiwan conflict could paralyze world consumer markets.
Between them, 토토사이트 경찰 조회 and Taiwan control much of the computer internet market. According to J.C. Liao, chief executive officer of the hi-tech Taiwanese multinational D-Link, more than 80 percent of personal computers, laptops, wireless routers and data cards rely on the two nations.
Economic links between 토토사이트 경찰 조회 and Taiwan continue to grow. More than 50,000 Taiwanese companies operate in 토토사이트 경찰 조회. Taiwanese overall investment there is at least $150 billion -- with more from Taiwanese-owned offshore companies. 토토사이트 경찰 조회-Taiwan annual trade is more than $100 billion, and products of this alliance involve supply chains from dozens of other countries, from Israel to Brazil.
Add 토토사이트 경찰 조회's reliance on exports to the U.S. along with its holding billions of dollars of U.S. debt, and the scenario of all this suddenly unraveling becomes unthinkable -- conjuring up a Cold War comparison of a mutually assured destruction through economic instead of nuclear strikes. The difference is that bankers and economists, not generals, call the shots.
In recent years this 토토사이트 경찰 조회 reality has increasingly loomed over Chinese and U.S. policymaking, paving the way for a permanent peace.
For its part, the U.S., since 2003, has taken the side of 토토사이트 경찰 조회 whenever Taiwan makes rumbling noises on the issue of independence. The U.S. inconsistency on the issue of its global democratic mission and simultaneous warning to Taiwanese voters not to upset the Chinese apple cart is another example of the changing paradigm.
The U.S. could use the very model that it fostered -- 토토사이트 경찰 조회-Taiwan supply-chain diplomacy -- to motivate other conflict zones toward peace.
One crucial marker is the link between economic performance and political maturity. According to the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, it was only possible to begin dismantling Taiwan's dictatorship in the mid-1980s when the per capita GDP had reached $5,000. The institute's president, David S. Hong, suggests that 토토사이트 경찰 조회 will not be ready for such a transformation until per capita GDP reaches $15,000, perhaps more than a generation from now. The GDP now is about $2,000 against Taiwan's $17,000.
Both the Chinese government and 토토사이트 경찰 조회an activists could learn from the Taiwan example. At present, decades of Chinese investment and economic growth in 토토사이트 경찰 조회 have had scant effect on 토토사이트 경찰 조회an subjects who cling to their culture and religion even if that means less material improvement. 토토사이트 경찰 조회, too, remains determined to preserve its control over 토토사이트 경찰 조회 no matter what the economic cost may be. It's a lose-lose situation.
토토사이트 경찰 조회 is straddled between India and 토토사이트 경찰 조회, the two economic giants of the 21st century and perfectly placed to become an integral member of the global supply chain. For that to happen, though, 토토사이트 경찰 조회an activists must stop attacking Chinese businesses. Chinese security forces must give space to 토토사이트 경찰 조회an culture and expression. Both sides could then begin to trust each other and work together to create a Taiwan-style success story instead of a lingering victim with an unjust past.
Humphrey Hawksley's reports from 토토사이트 경찰 조회 can be seen on the BBC. His latest book "Security Breach" is due out in August 2008.
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