ARE 토토사이트 bts SURE THAT’S WHAT 토토사이트 bts WANT? NEGOTIATORS OFTEN ERR IN
By the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School (www.pon.harvard.edu)
How happy do 토토사이트 bts think 토토사이트 bts'll be if 토토사이트 btsr candidate wins an upcoming election? How happy will 토토사이트 bts feel if 토토사이트 btsr favorite sports team wins its next national championship? Now imagine how upset 토토사이트 bts will be if 토토사이트 btsr candidate narrowly loses the election or if 토토사이트 btsr team just misses winning the championship.
If 토토사이트 bts're like most people, 토토사이트 bts just committed an error in judgment: 토토사이트 bts overestimated how happy a win would make 토토사이트 bts and how devastating a loss would feel.
Across the board, people predict that future events -- whether a World Series win, a promotion, or even the death of a loved one -- will have a strong, lasting impact on their 토토사이트 bts, psychologists Daniel Gilbert of Harvard University and Timothy Wilson of the University of Virginia have found. Yet when such events come to pass, they have a lesser long-term effect on 토토사이트 bts than people expect, a phenomenon that Gilbert and Wilson call the "impact bias."
In negotiation, the impact bias can lead us to make mistakes when choosing what will bring us pleasure or spare us pain, a phenomenon Gilbert has labeled "miswanting." Although miswanting has both pros and cons, overall 토토사이트 bts'll benefit from thinking more carefully about what might make 토토사이트 bts happy.
People overestimate the intensity and duration of their emotional responses to a wide array of events, according to Gilbert, Wilson, and professors George Loewenstein of Carnegie Mellon University and Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University.
As an example, in a 1998 study, Gilbert, Wilson, and several other colleagues asked a group of assistant professors facing tenure decisions to predict how being granted tenure would affect their overall 토토사이트 bts over time. When they imagined being denied tenure, the assistant professors expected they would be significantly less happy for about five years than if they were awarded tenure. The researchers also surveyed two groups of former assistant professors about their 토토사이트 bts, those who had been awarded tenure and those who had not. Those denied tenure reported being just as happy as those who had received tenure, even when their tenure decisions were recent.
In similar studies, groups of students, voters, newspaper readers and job seekers all overestimated their unhappy reactions to failed romances, political defeats, upsetting news and personal rejections, respectively. We accurately expect that we'll be cheered by good fortune and upset by bad news, but we err in assuming how strong and lasting that mood will be.
Why do we have so much trouble anticipating the strength of our feelings? Because, when we imagine a certain outcome, we focus too much on how it will affect us and too little on other events in our lives that will be occurring simultaneously. 토토사이트 bts might expect that 토토사이트 bts'll be ecstatic if 토토사이트 bts procure 토토사이트 btsr dream job. But if someone in 토토사이트 btsr family becomes seriously ill around the same time 토토사이트 bts get the job, 토토사이트 bts may be too distracted and worried to enjoy 토토사이트 btsr new role.
In addition, when making choices, we tend to focus on large differences between options and overlook similarities that could affect us more. In a study with Elizabeth Dunn of the University of British Columbia, for example, Wilson and Gilbert found that undergraduate students who were randomly assigned with groups of friends to various dormitories underestimated how stable social factors would influence their 토토사이트 bts and overestimated the effect of obvious physical differences between the dorms, such as location, on their 토토사이트 bts.
We also overlook the impact of minor annoyances on our lives. Suppose 토토사이트 btsr dream job requires 토토사이트 bts to share an office with a co-worker who talks loudly on the phone all day. 토토사이트 btsr low-simmering irritation, something 토토사이트 bts never considered during the job interview, could overshadow the satisfaction 토토사이트 bts gain from the work itself.
Finally, negative events such as a job loss, divorce or death in the family can trigger powerful defense mechanisms, or what Gilbert calls our psychological immune system. Human beings have an innate self-protective tendency to make the best of bad situations. Surprised by a business dissolution, we suddenly recognize our former partner's shortcomings. Turned down by a customer, we find a new one and convince ourselves it is the perfect match.
Because our brains are wired to adapt to changing circumstances, we tend to return to a set level of 토토사이트 bts after a boost or a setback, say scholars in the field of "positive psychology." As each new achievement becomes ordinary and less pleasurable, we seek out the next one that we think will bring us lasting 토토사이트 bts.
Does that mean negotiation is a pointless enterprise, one 토토사이트 bts're doomed to repeat in an elusive quest for greater happiness? On the contrary: The prospect of delight and the fear of disaster can be powerful motivators for positive change, whether that means winning a new contract, getting out of a destructive relationship, advocating for 토토사이트 btsr children's safety, or finding a better job.
Yet a keener understanding of what will make 토토사이트 bts happy can help 토토사이트 bts make better choices in negotiation. In particular, keep in mind that vivid fears and desires as well as obvious differences between options are likely to capture 토토사이트 btsr attention. Balance these concerns by factoring other issues that will affect 토토사이트 btsr happiness into the equation. Research shows that money does not correlate strongly with lasting happiness, for instance, but that friendships and other social ties do.
For negotiators who agonize over hard choices, awareness of the impact bias can bring solace. Knowing that 토토사이트 bts're likely to bounce back from adversity may free 토토사이트 bts to take calculated risks, and overcoming unrealistic expectations may promote greater long-term contentment.
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