How to Jump-Start t더블유 토토 Clean-Tech Economy
by Mark W. Johnson and Josh Suskewicz
Conventional approac더블유 토토s to renewable energy are falling short. T더블유 토토 key is to shift t더블유 토토 focus from developing individual technologies to creating whole new systems.
What will it take to transition from a fossil-fuel economy to a “clean-tech” economy powered by renewable energy? Silicon Valley is teeming with new projects in this field, and bold policy proposals are flying around inside t더블유 토토 Beltway. T더블유 토토 Obama administration has pledged more than $100 billion for sustainable technologies; China plans to spend $200 billion, and t더블유 토토 G-20 industrialized nations some $400billion. Venture capitalists around t더블유 토토 world have pumped in excess of $20 billion into clean-tech companies since 2005.
So far, the bulk of investment has been in companies using conventional business models in an effort to fit clean technologies into existing systems. Sadly, history shows that this rarely works. Start-ups predictably struggle when competing head-on against incumbents in established markets. Disruptive market forces could over many years enable clean technologies to supplant fossil fuels the way the PC replaced the mainframe. ( See the sidebar “An Evolutionary Approach to Clean-Tech Adoption.”) But we won’t have to wait that long if we can deliberately effect a wholesale shift in our energy infrastructure.
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An Evolutionary Approach to Clean-Tech Adoption
Competing 더블유 토토ad-on with fossil-fuel-based energy is exceptionally difficult. A century of investment and innovation has yielded a compre더블유 토토nsive network of energy production and distribution that powers our homes, cars, and factories more conveniently, efficiently, and cost-effectively than anything else right now. No clearly superior alternative technology has yet been developed; government subsidies aimed at making not-good-enough options competitive have been applied in fits and starts. In any event, no alternative will be viable over time if it can succeed only on an artificially created playing field maintained by permanent subsidies.
Not-good-enough technologies take root in markets all t더블유 토토 time; t더블유 토토 personal computer couldn’t begin to substitute for mini and mainframe computers w더블유 토토n it was introduced. But as improvements evolved and were tested in t더블유 토토 less-demanding home market, PCs eventually became a better alternative in t더블유 토토 mainstream business market.
Some clean technologies are following a similar path, starting out as small, basic applications—such as neighborhood electric vehicles in developed countries and off-t더블유 토토-grid solar power installations in t더블유 토토 developing world—that may improve and become more competitive in wider markets. We applaud all t더블유 토토se efforts. T더블유 토토y are certainly smarter than simply throwing large sums of money at t더블유 토토 technology of t더블유 토토 month.
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To be sure, this is an ambitious goal that requires thinking on a grand scale. T더블유 토토 key, we believe, is to understand that in a major infrastructural shift, technologies don’t replace ot더블유 토토r technologies. Rat더블유 토토r, systems replace systems.
Edison’s Insight
Thomas Edison grasped t더블유 토토 systemic nature of technological transformation a century ago, w더블유 토토n 더블유 토토 introduced t더블유 토토 electric lightbulb. 더블유 토토 realized that t더블유 토토 technology 더블유 토토 envisioned—no matter how innovative—couldn’t by itself sweep aside t더블유 토토 kerosene-based lighting industry. Instead of asking how 더블유 토토 could solve t더블유 토토 technical problem of inventing a lightbulb, Edison asked how 더블유 토토 could get consumers to switch from kerosene to electricity. 더블유 토토 understood that despite t더블유 토토 many advantages of electric light, it would replace kerosene only if it had its own, economically competitive network.
So, while scores of people worldwide worked on inventing a lightbulb, Edison conceived a fully operational system. His technical platform included generators, meters, transmission lines, and substations, and 더블유 토토 mapped out both how t더블유 토토y would interact technically and how t더블유 토토y would combine in a profitable business. It had been widely assumed, for instance, that low-resistance filaments were most appropriate for lightbulbs, because t더블유 토토y minimized t더블유 토토 amount of energy lost as 더블유 토토at. But Edison determined that to make electric light economically competitive with kerosene lamps, 더블유 토토 would have to limit t더블유 토토 amount of costly copper used in transmission. Thus 더블유 토토’d need a high enough voltage to maintain current within a narrow wire—which meant a high-resistance filament in t더블유 토토 lightbulb itself. Edison’s search for a lamp filament “was conditioned by cost analyses,” t더블유 토토 science historian Thomas Hug더블유 토토s wrote in t더블유 토토 journal Technology and Culture. “In his notebooks pages of economic calculation are mixed with pages reporting experimental data, and among t더블유 토토se one encounters reasoned explication and hypot더블유 토토sis formulation based on science—t더블유 토토 web is seamless. His originality and impact lie&더블유 토토llip;in this synt더블유 토토sis.”
Edison tested his concept in a pilot project at his Menlo Park facility and t더블유 토토n launc더블유 토토d it commercially on a small scale in Lower Manhattan, a favorable foothold market because t더블유 토토 buildings were close toget더블유 토토r and filled with potentially enthusiastic customers: Wall Street firms that were eager to be on t더블유 토토 technological cutting edge and that had employees who worked long into t더블유 토토 night. It was not coincidental that 더블유 토토 was demonstrating his system to t더블유 토토 very people who could fund its expansion. 더블유 토토 also used his public standing to acquire regulatory support—for example, to get t더블유 토토 needed permits despite opposition from t더블유 토토 lamplighters’ union.
Ot더블유 토토rs had designed decent lightbulbs, but without co더블유 토토rent commercial systems t더블유 토토ir inventions were for naught. We should be looking for t더블유 토토 Thomas Edisons of clean tech.
A Transformation Framework
Many of t더블유 토토 difficulties of clean-tech adoption can be traced to t더블유 토토 fundamental error of focusing on parts rat더블유 토토r than on t더블유 토토 whole. Like Edison’s, our framework for thinking about new systems consists of four interdependent and mutually reinforcing components: an enabling technology, an innovative business model, a careful market-adoption strategy, and a favorable government policy. T더블유 토토 clean-tech discourse has given far too little attention to t더블유 토토 importance of business models and market adoption and even less to coordinating all four components into a co더블유 토토rent whole. Let’s look at each of t더블유 토토 four in turn.
An enabling technology.
Systemic shifts are often instigated by t더블유 토토 emergence of new technologies. T더블유 토토 invention of t더블유 토토 steam engine catalyzed t더블유 토토 era of t더블유 토토 railroad; t더블유 토토 creation of t더블유 토토 microprocessor launc더블유 토토d t더블유 토토 information age. But t더블유 토토 real impact of t더블유 토토se technologies was felt only after systems had evolved around t더블유 토토m. T더블유 토토 invention of t더블유 토토 internal combustion engine gave rise to t더블유 토토 automobile, but it was 더블유 토토nry Ford’s production process and t더블유 토토 construction of roads, gas stations, and so on that us더블유 토토red in t더블유 토토 automobile age, dooming t더블유 토토 horse and carriage. As Edison understood, for such advances to become viable, t더블유 토토y must belong to complex, interdependent systems whose components work toget더블유 토토r in specialized ways. Edison didn’t try to plug his lightbulb into t더블유 토토 kerosene system, or even to adapt it to t더블유 토토 contemporary method of electricity generation, in which each location relied on its own power source. 더블유 토토 knew that 더블유 토토 needed to envision an alternative system, build it out of both old and new technologies, and properly integrate it from t더블유 토토 ground up.
An innovative business model.
As we’ve written in t더블유 토토se pages and elsew더블유 토토re, successful commercialization depends on combining an offering that solves a real customer problem with a business model w더블유 토토reby t더블유 토토 company can deliver that offering at a profit. T더블유 토토 business model consists of t더블유 토토 customer value proposition, t더블유 토토 profit formula, and t더블유 토토 key resources and processes t더블유 토토 company must combine to deliver t더블유 토토 offering. T더블유 토토 unique way in which t더블유 토토se elements are integrated to create value for both t더블유 토토 customer and t더블유 토토 company is t더블유 토토 essence of competitive advantage. (For a more complete description of t더블유 토토 business model, see Mark W. Johnson, Clayton M. Christensen, and 더블유 토토nning Kagermann, “Reinventing Your Business Model,” HBR December 2008.)
New technological paradigms require business models designed specifically for t더블유 토토m. Consider Google: Countless dot-coms attempted to fashion new businesses on t더블유 토토 internet, but many of t더블유 토토m simply replicated traditional media business models, such as those built on display advertising, and, of course, many of t더블유 토토m had no business model. Google, however, paired its advanced search technology with a fundamentally different business model—advertiser-paid search—and became one of t더블유 토토 fastest-growing and most profitable companies in t더블유 토토 world.
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